KMT Kenya Climate Research
Mapping climatic risks, impacts and adaptation options along the water, agricultural inputs and livestock value chains in Kenya
This report examines and maps climate risks and adaptation options along five value chains that the Kenya Markets Trust (KMT) is currently working on, namely; water service delivery, agricultural Inputs (seed, fertiliser and lime) and livestock. It also highlights adaptation options in each of the value chains and suggests ways in which stakeholders can engage to promote deployment and adoption of the adaptation options.
Changes in climate and impact on agricultural systems
Changes in climate, together with other stressors, are already exacerbating vulnerability of African agricultural and water systems (IPCC, 2014). This, in turn, increases the risks of food insecurity, loss of rural livelihoods, reduced water availability and decline in productivity of farming and pastoral systems (IPCC, 2014). Climate change impacts are already costing and will continue costing African economies if adaptation measures are not deployed at scale. IPCC predicts that, by 2050, crop yields in Sub-Saharan Africa will have declined by; 14% (rice), 22% (wheat) and 5% (maize), pushing the vast number of already poor people, who depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, deeper into poverty and vulnerability.
The agricultural sector in Kenya and climate change
The agricultural sector in Kenya is especially vulnerable to climate change as it is mainly dependent on rainfall and other weather variables
The agricultural sector in Kenya – which accounts for about 25% of national GDP, 60% of foreign exchange earnings and 70% of total employment – is especially vulnerable to climate change as it is mainly dependent on rainfall and other weather variables. Yield for both maize and beans (Kenya’s staple crops) are projected to be 25% lower under a 2°C scenario, compared to 1.5°C warming. Climate change is expected to affect the Big Four Agenda especially food security in several respects: increased vulnerability due to dependence on rain-fed agriculture; high levels of poverty; and low levels of human and physical capital as well as generally poor infrastructure.
This was a rapid assessment and mapping of key climatic risks and adaptation options along the main value chains that KMT works in namely: water service delivery, livestock and agricultural inputs. The analysis is based on a desk review of published and grey literature on climatic risks and adaptation options. The desk review was supplemented with interviews with key KMT sector managers and staff and a review of the existing sector strategies. Identification of risks for each value chain and measures to address this was done following the methodology proposed by IFAD (2015).
The United Nations classifies Kenya as a chronically water scarce country based on having one of the lowest natural water replenishment rates, at 647 metres cubed per capita per annum which is far below the UN standards of 1,000 metres cubed per capita per annum4. The water crisis in the country is being exacerbated by the climate change, a phenomenon which impacts water production and distribution infrastructure and operations by water utilities.
Climate change has been cited as a major cause of irregular and unpredictable rainfall, extreme and harsh weather, with some regions of Kenya experiencing frequent droughts during the long dry seasons while others experiencing severe floods during the short rains5.
Severe droughts have become more frequent in the livestock rearing regions in Kenya leading to higher livestock death in pastoral systems, and acute food and water shortages in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas. The livestock sector experienced the worst impacts during the 2011 drought, losing approximately KSh 699 billion, with KSh 56billion in damages due to costs from veterinary care, water, feeds and production decline, and KSh 643 billion in losses due to animal deaths (GoK, 2013).
Impacts of climate change are worsened by overstocking of group ranches due to high population resulting in soil deterioration and environmental degradation. This makes the range lands to be vulnerable to even a normal dry spell which is characteristic of dry lands. Animal health could be affected both by extreme events (for example high or low temperatures) and by the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases, some of the m transmitted by vectors that are highly dependent on climatic conditions.
The government of Kenya has developed the Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy (KCSAS) 2017 – 2026, whose main objective is to adapt to climate change, and build resilience of agricultural systems while minimising emissions for enhanced food and nutritional security and improved livelihoods. This strategy is aligned with KMT’s agricultural inputs sector strategy that aims to facilitate transformational changes in the agricultural input sector through:
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- Mass adoption of lime by smallholders
- Mass adoption of crop-specific fertilisers by smallholders
- Industry players reach millions of farmers with information, driving adoption of inputs and good agricultural practices
- Mass adoption of certified seed potato
Major reduction in late planting by farmers, - due to better seed availability
- Major improvements in certified seed germination, through better seed quality control and/or storage.
In considering these transformational interventions, the following section considers the climate risk and impacts along agricultural inputs value chain. In addition, the section also identifies innovative climate change adaptation options along the key focus value chains, namely seeds, fertiliser and lime.
Chapter 6: Conclusion and Way Forward
This report has critically analysed the impacts of climate risks (droughts, delay in rainy seasons and floods) along the water service delivery, livestock and agricultural inputs (seeds, fertiliser and lime) value chains and the potential adaptation measures. It is very clear from the analysis, that the interventions beneficiaries (farmers or consumers) are a key stakeholder in achieving a climate-resilient agricultural and water system.
Mapping climatic risks, impacts and adaptation options along the water, agricultural inputs and livestock value chains in Kenya
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