KMT Kenya Climate Research

Mapping climatic risks, impacts and adaptation options along the water, agricultural inputs and livestock value chains in Kenya

This report examines and maps climate risks and adaptation options along five value chains that the Kenya Markets Trust (KMT) is currently working on, namely; water service delivery, agricultural Inputs (seed, fertiliser and lime) and livestock. It also highlights adaptation options in each of the value chains and suggests ways in which stakeholders can engage to promote deployment and adoption of the adaptation options.

climate change risks impacts and adaptation options

Why This Study is Important

Climate change is impacting almost all sectors of Kenya’s economy either directly or indirectly.
  • Drought
  • Others

The direct long-term loss due to floods and drought

The direct long-term loss due to floods and drought in Kenya are estimated at 2.4% of GDP.

Effects Of Climate Change

Climate change also limits the viability of livelihood resources such as land, compromises infrastructure development, and lowers productivity, all in the face of rapid population increase.

Due To The 2017 - 2018 Droughts

3.4 million Kenyans were left food insecure

A 5.3% rise in livestock sales occurred, to avoid death of the animals through hunger and thirst.

Over 500,000 Kenyans were left without access to water.

The Government of Kenya has developed action plans to guide the mainstreaming of climate change into sector functions, i.e. the NCCAP 2018-2022. There is also increasing global and regional support for climate-smart interventions.

Integration of climate information in risk management and adaptation planning for projects is one of the priorities for sustainable value chains

Contents of the Research


1.1 Introduction


2.1 Methodology

The Water Value Chain

3.1  Climatic Risk and Impacts
3.2  Adaptation Options

The Livestock Value Chain

4.1  Climatic Risks and Impacts
4.2  Adaptation Option

The Agricultural Inputs Value Chain

5.1  Seeds Value Chain
5.2  Fertiliser Value Chain
5.3  Agricultural Lime Value Chain


Policies and Partnerships

Chapter 1: Paper Introduction

The Main Value Chains

This paper reports a rapid assessment and mapping of key climatic risks and innovative adaptation options along the main value chains that the Kenya Markets Trust (KMT) works in. The value chains are:

Water service delivery

Livestock and meat

Agricultural inputs (seed, fertiliser and lime)

Changes in climate and impact on agricultural systems

Changes in climate, together with other stressors, are already exacerbating vulnerability of African agricultural and water systems (IPCC, 2014). This, in turn, increases the risks of food insecurity, loss of rural livelihoods, reduced water availability and decline in productivity of farming and pastoral systems (IPCC, 2014). Climate change impacts are already costing and will continue costing African economies if adaptation measures are not deployed at scale. IPCC predicts that, by 2050, crop yields in Sub-Saharan Africa will have declined by; 14% (rice), 22% (wheat) and 5% (maize), pushing the vast number of already poor people, who depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, deeper into poverty and vulnerability.

The agricultural sector in Kenya and climate change

The agricultural sector in Kenya is especially vulnerable to climate change as it is mainly dependent on rainfall and other weather variables

The agricultural sector in Kenya – which accounts for about 25% of national GDP, 60% of foreign exchange earnings and 70% of total employment – is especially vulnerable to climate change as it is mainly dependent on rainfall and other weather variables. Yield for both maize and beans (Kenya’s staple crops) are projected to be 25% lower under a 2°C scenario, compared to 1.5°C warming. Climate change is expected to affect the Big Four Agenda especially food security in several respects: increased vulnerability due to dependence on rain-fed agriculture; high levels of poverty; and low levels of human and physical capital as well as generally poor infrastructure.

Chapter 2: Methodology

This was a rapid assessment and mapping of key climatic risks and adaptation options along the main value chains that KMT works in namely: water service delivery, livestock and agricultural inputs. The analysis is based on a desk review of published and grey literature on climatic risks and adaptation options. The desk review was supplemented with interviews with key KMT sector managers and staff and a review of the existing sector strategies. Identification of risks for each value chain and measures to address this was done following the methodology proposed by IFAD (2015).

Chapter 3: The Water Value Chain

The United Nations classifies Kenya as a chronically water scarce country based on having one of the lowest natural water replenishment rates, at 647 metres cubed per capita per annum which is far below the UN standards of 1,000 metres cubed per capita per annum4. The water crisis in the country is being exacerbated by the climate change, a phenomenon which impacts water production and distribution infrastructure and operations by water utilities.

Climate change has been cited as a major cause of irregular and unpredictable rainfall, extreme and harsh weather, with some regions of Kenya experiencing frequent droughts during the long dry seasons while others experiencing severe floods during the short rains5.

Chapter 4: The Livestock Value Chain

Severe droughts have become more frequent in the livestock rearing regions in Kenya leading to higher livestock death in pastoral systems, and acute food and water shortages in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas. The livestock sector experienced the worst impacts during the 2011 drought, losing approximately KSh 699 billion, with KSh 56billion in damages due to costs from veterinary care, water, feeds and production decline, and KSh 643 billion in losses due to animal deaths (GoK, 2013).

Impacts of climate change are worsened by overstocking of group ranches due to high population resulting in soil deterioration and environmental degradation. This makes the range lands to be vulnerable to even a normal dry spell which is characteristic of dry lands. Animal health could be affected both by extreme events (for example high or low temperatures) and by the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases, some of the m transmitted by vectors that are highly dependent on climatic conditions.

Chapter 5: The Agricultural Inputs Value Chain

The government of Kenya has developed the Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy (KCSAS) 2017 – 2026, whose main objective is to adapt to climate change, and build resilience of agricultural systems while minimising emissions for enhanced food and nutritional security and improved livelihoods. This strategy is aligned with KMT’s agricultural inputs sector strategy that aims to facilitate transformational changes in the agricultural input sector through:

    • Mass adoption of lime by smallholders
    • Mass adoption of crop-specific fertilisers by smallholders
    • Industry players reach millions of farmers with information, driving adoption of inputs and good agricultural practices
    • Mass adoption of certified seed potato
      Major reduction in late planting by farmers,
    • due to better seed availability
    • Major improvements in certified seed germination, through better seed quality control and/or storage.

In considering these transformational interventions, the following section considers the climate risk and impacts along agricultural inputs value chain. In addition, the section also identifies innovative climate change adaptation options along the key focus value chains, namely seeds, fertiliser and lime.

Chapter 6: Conclusion and Way Forward

This report has critically analysed the impacts of climate risks (droughts, delay in rainy seasons and floods) along the water service delivery, livestock and agricultural inputs (seeds, fertiliser and lime) value chains and the potential adaptation measures. It is very clear from the analysis, that the interventions beneficiaries (farmers or consumers) are a key stakeholder in achieving a climate-resilient agricultural and water system.

climate change risks impacts and adaptation options

Mapping climatic risks, impacts and adaptation options along the water, agricultural inputs and livestock value chains in Kenya

Format: PDF
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A Dawn of a New Chapter for Kenya Markets Trust

After years of successfully working together as partners with a shared mission of transforming sectors in East Africa, Gatsby Africa, Kenya Markets Trust and Msingi East Africa have decided to integrate and become one entity as of April 01, 2022.

The new integrated entity will be called Gatsby Africa – a philanthropic entity of Lord David Sainsbury and will operate across six sectors in East Africa – Commercial Forestry, Aquaculture, Textiles and Apparel, Livestock, Agricultural Inputs, and Water.

We believe that the ambition and vision of the new organisation, coupled with the breadth of our portfolio, puts us in a strong position to deliver a meaningful level of impact for millions of people in the East African region. It equally strengthens our ability to generate and share our learning with others.

Coming together allows us to leverage the strengths of the three organisations, brings efficiency to how we work, and ensures we have a greater impact in our work.

What does this mean for the work that we have been passionately championing over the years? There will be no changes to the focus and modalities of how we work or our shared commitments – our three existing programmes will continue to operate in the same way they have always done.

We will be launching the new integrated Gatsby Africa organisation on April 01, 2022. By mid-April, we will share with you a link to our new website and official social media handles. However, we will retain our current website for a minimum period of six months, so that our knowledge materials are available to you. We shall be moving these over to our new website so that nothing will be lost.

As an organisation, we are excited about the opportunities that this integration brings for our people, partners and the sectors we work in. We are humbled by the collaboration and good working relationship we have had with all our different stakeholders and look forward to continuing working with you in the new organisation.